Semivarying Coefficient Models for Capture-recapture Data: Colony Size Estimation for the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor

Abstract:

Understanding the changes in abundance for wildlife populations across time is critical to developing appropriate conservation strategies. These changes may be due to environmental or biotic variables. To accommodate seasonal effects that change from year to year into models for the size of an open population, we consider a time-varying coefficient model. We fit this model to capture-recapture data using Jolly-Seber type estimators and nonparametric P-spline techniques. The model is applied to a capture-recapture data set collected on the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor over a 25 year period. In this presentation I will discuss these models and the analysis of the Little Penguin data.