Cold Calculations: Predicting risk for Antarctic ecosystems in a warming world

Synopsis

Antarctica is one of the most remote and ecologically significant regions on Earth. It plays a crucial role in regulating the global climate and ocean currents, influencing ecosystems worldwide. Despite its isolation, Antarctic ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change, pollution, and human activities, making it essential to understand the risks they face.

Ice-free patches of land contain most of the life in Antarctica. Recently, scientists have mapped Antarctic ice-free ecosystems in detail, revealing diverse habitats and biotas. Following a globally recognized conservation approach, it is now crucial to evaluate the future of these unique and fragile ecosystems. How widespread are they, and how will this change with forecasted melting? How might the processes defining these ecosystems change with human disturbance and the introduction of invasive species? Which ecosystems are at risk of disappearing before we can even study them?

This research is critical not only for understanding Antarctica's future but also for addressing broader questions of climate change and biodiversity conservation.

Aims

This project will leverage newly available climate and geographic datasets to evaluate the potential threats to Antarctic ice-free ecosystems, such as rising temperatures, glacial melting, and changing sea ice conditions. By analysing this data, the project aims to identify high-risk areas and contribute to ongoing efforts to preserve this vital region for future generations.

Objectives of this project are:

• Use conceptual models of the structure and function of Antarctic ecosystems to identify potential threats and ways to measure ecosystem integrity.
• Use existing forecasts of risks such as climate change, human activity, or changes in sea level to model the future extent and disturbance level of Antarctic ecosystems.
• Identify ecosystems that are shrinking, whose optimal conditions are moving, and areas where novel conditions are predicted. 

Student benefits

• You will work at the intersection of biogeography, climate science, and conservation.
• You will develop highly transferrable skills in Geographic Information Systems,
• You will learn about the structure and function in cold-adapted ecosystems,
• You will gain strong quantitative and analytical skills,
• You’ll be trained in ecosystem risk assessment using a globally recognized standard that is in increasing demand,
• You will connect within a local and global network of conservation and ecology researchers.

The project provides experience relevant to a career in conservation planning and management, ecological research, and environmental consulting. 

Supervisors: Dr. Anikó B. Tóth and Dr. José R. Ferrer-Paris